| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. unemployment rate will be in June 2026; it matters because the unemployment rate is a widely watched gauge of labor market health that influences monetary policy, financial markets, and household finances.
The official monthly unemployment rate is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and is influenced by hiring, layoffs, and labor force participation. June 2026 will reflect economic conditions and policy actions from the preceding quarters, and historical swings in the rate tend to track macro shocks, business-cycle dynamics, and seasonal hiring patterns.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' expectations across the possible published outcomes for June 2026; they are a real-time signal that will change as new data and events arrive but should be interpreted alongside official releases and economic indicators.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics typically publishes the unemployment rate for a given month on the Friday of the following month; this Kalshi event will settle based on the official BLS seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for June 2026 as defined in the market's settlement rules—check the event page for the precise settlement source and timing.
The 23 discrete outcomes partition the range of possible published unemployment-rate values (typically as bins or exact decimal values); each outcome corresponds to one specific published value or range listed on the market page, so review the outcome labels before trading.
Monthly jobs reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate releases), weekly initial jobless claims, ADP/private payroll indicators, job openings (JOLTS), and major GDP or consumer-spending releases are the primary data points that will update expectations ahead of the June release.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides the official statistic; the Federal Reserve and fiscal policymakers shape demand through interest-rate and budget policies; large employers, sectoral hiring decisions, and macroeconomic shocks also materially influence the reported rate.
Confirm settlement rules and outcome definitions, account for limited liquidity given the current total volume traded ($140) and the 23-outcome market structure, size positions conservatively, and use other labor-market indicators to inform timing—markets can move quickly around new data releases so monitor relevant reports and news.