| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the official U.S. unemployment rate will be for July 2026; the unemployment rate is a widely watched gauge of labor-market health that affects monetary policy, markets, and public debate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the monthly Employment Situation, which includes the headline unemployment rate (U-3) based on the household survey. July 2026 will reflect mid‑2026 hiring trends, seasonal summer labor patterns, and any ongoing cyclical or sectoral shifts in employment.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations about the reported number and update as new data and news arrive; use them as a real‑time summary of consensus views while noting they can move quickly on new information.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Employment Situation report that contains the official July unemployment rate, typically on the first Friday of August 2026 in the monthly release schedule.
This event refers to the headline unemployment rate as reported in the BLS Employment Situation (the standard U-3 measure) unless the event description on the platform specifies a different series—always confirm the market's definition on KALSHI.
Yes. BLS revisions to previous months' payroll or unemployment figures can change perceived momentum in the labor market, so analysts often consider both the headline July number and any concurrent revisions.
Key movers include weekly initial jobless claims, private payroll estimates (e.g., ADP), monthly wage and hours data, PMI and other activity indicators, major corporate hiring or layoff announcements, and central bank commentary.
Seasonal adjustment removes predictable calendar effects such as summer student and seasonal hiring; for July, check recent patterns in BLS seasonal factors and whether atypical seasonal behavior or one-off events may make the adjusted rate less representative of underlying trends.