| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 4.2% | 25% | 23¢ | 25¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.5% | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.4% | 32% | 31¢ | 33¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.3% | 32% | 31¢ | 32¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $655 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.9% | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $140 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.6% | 8% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $58 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks what the U.S. unemployment rate will be for February 2026; the unemployment rate is a key labor-market indicator that influences policy decisions, financial markets, and business planning.
The outcome will be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation release, which historically appears on the first Friday after the reference month (so the February 2026 headline rate is normally published in early March 2026). Kalshi offers 23 discrete outcomes for this event and total volume traded so far is $22,777; the market's official close time is listed as TBD and will typically align with the data release and Kalshi's settlement rules.
Market prices summarize traders' collective expectations about the BLS headline unemployment rate for February 2026 and will move as incoming economic data and news change those expectations.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the monthly Employment Situation report (typically the first Friday of March for a February reference month). This Kalshi market resolves to the BLS headline national unemployment rate for February 2026 as reported in that official release; consult Kalshi's contract terms for the exact settlement mechanics and timing.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific value or range offered by the exchange representing possible published values of the February 2026 unemployment rate; the outcome that matches the BLS-published figure (or range containing it) will be the winning contract at settlement.
Most exchange contracts resolve to the initial BLS published figure at the scheduled release; later BLS revisions generally do not reopen settled markets. Check Kalshi's event rules to confirm whether resolution uses the first published number or a later revision.
Watch weekly initial unemployment claims, the January nonfarm payrolls and household survey, ADP/private payroll estimates, the JOLTS job openings report, and any major corporate layoff or hiring announcements, since these items typically shift expectations for the BLS headline rate.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics computes the unemployment rate from the Current Population Survey (household survey); the headline rate is the share of the labor force without employment (usually seasonally adjusted). Kalshi resolves to that official BLS figure as published for February 2026.