| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 3.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the official unemployment rate will be for August 2026; that number is a core gauge of labor-market health and can influence monetary policy, markets, and hiring decisions.
National statistics agencies publish a monthly unemployment rate derived from household and payroll surveys; many markets and analysts focus on the seasonally adjusted headline rate. The August 2026 reading will summarize labor-market conditions through that month and will be interpreted alongside prior months, payroll reports, and policy developments earlier in 2026.
Market prices represent the aggregated expectations of traders about which published outcome will occur; they change as new data and news arrive and should be read as a summary of market beliefs, not a guaranteed prediction.
The market will reference the official monthly labor-market release from the national statistics agency (for example, the BLS in the U.S. where applicable). The outcome is based on the headline unemployment rate value as published in that official report; check the market's settlement rules for the exact source named.
Monthly unemployment-rate reports are usually published in the weeks immediately after the reference month (often the first month-following release window). The market's settlement timing depends on its rules and the official release date — consult the market page for the precise settlement schedule.
Markets typically settle to the official figure that the market rules specify (often the initially published headline number); if the statistics agency revises the series later, settlement usually does not change unless the market rules explicitly allow using revised values. Confirm the settlement policy on the market’s rules page.
The 23 listed outcomes map to specific labeled values or ranges for the published August 2026 unemployment rate. Each outcome corresponds to the official reported rate falling into that label or bucket; read the outcome labels on the market page to see the exact mapping.
Regular monthly reports (employment/payrolls, unemployment claims), major inflation and GDP prints, central bank meetings and guidance, large corporate hiring/layoff announcements, and unexpected shocks (natural disasters, policy changes, geopolitical events) are the primary drivers that can shift expectations for August 2026.