| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which outcome will describe the official U.S. unemployment rate for March 2026 and matters because that rate is a primary indicator of labor market strength that influences monetary policy, markets, and business planning.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the monthly unemployment rate based on the Current Population Survey; that release typically resolves monthly unemployment markets. Near-term macro conditions—growth, inflation, central bank policy, and large employer hiring or layoffs—shape expectations going into March 2026, while the contract's wording determines exact settlement procedures.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which outcome will be realized and update as new information arrives; use prices as a real-time signal and check the contract text for exact outcome definitions before trading.
The market will resolve based on the official unemployment rate for March 2026 as specified in the contract, which is normally the figure published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics; consult the contract's resolution source and timestamp for exact settlement rules and timing.
The ten outcomes correspond to the mutually exclusive outcome bins or values defined in the contract text (for example, ranges or discrete values); review the market page to see the exact boundaries and wording before placing trades.
Key movers include monthly payrolls and unemployment releases, weekly initial jobless claims, private payroll indicators (e.g., ADP), labor force participation reports, and major employer announcements or layoff filings that change near-term expectations for March.
Seasonal-adjustment methods reweight raw survey counts to remove predictable seasonal patterns; unusual calendar effects, holiday timing, one-time hiring drives, or large temporary layoffs can alter the seasonally adjusted March figure relative to unadjusted data.
Participants range from retail speculators and macro traders to news-driven participants and occasional institutional liquidity providers; with relatively low volume, prices can be more sensitive to single trades or news events, so check market depth and recent trade activity before sizing positions.