| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks how high the UK unemployment rate will be for the period ending February 2026. Outcomes matter because unemployment is a key indicator of labour market health, consumer spending, and monetary policy decisions.
The UK labour market has been influenced in recent years by post-pandemic recovery dynamics, inflation and interest-rate responses, and sectoral shifts such as changes in services and tech hiring. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes the official headline unemployment measure, and market participants use incoming data (claimant counts, vacancies, earnings, GDP releases) to update expectations ahead of that publication.
Prediction market prices reflect traders’ aggregated views about which outcome bucket is most likely given available information; they update as new economic data and policy developments arrive. Treat market prices as a real-time signal of consensus beliefs, not a guarantee of the official ONS figure.
Check the contract terms on the trading platform for the precise definition; most UK labour-market contracts reference the ONS headline ILO unemployment rate for the three months to the named month, but confirm the event’s specification on the market page.
The ONS publishes monthly labour-market statistics on its official release calendar; this market generally aligns its close with the official ONS publication window, but the exact close time is set by the platform—verify the market’s timetable on the event page.
Follow the claimant count, job vacancies and hiring surveys, monthly GDP and services indicators, regular wage and earnings releases, and central bank communications for signals that tend to lead or corroborate labour-market shifts.
Monetary-policy tightening can dampen demand and hiring with a lag, while fiscal stimulus or major public-sector hiring can lower unemployment; sudden policy announcements or large-scale employment support programs can change market expectations quickly.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific range or bucket of the reported unemployment rate as defined in the contract. Traders allocate capital across buckets based on their view of where the official ONS figure will land; consult the contract description to map each numbered outcome to its unemployment-rate range.