| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market covers the official UK retail sales report for March 2026 and matters because retail sales are a timely indicator of household spending and near-term economic momentum.
Monthly retail sales measure changes in the volume and value of in-store and online purchases across the UK and are compiled by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Past March readings can be influenced by calendar effects (Easter timing), weather, and short-term policy or cost-of-living shifts; traders and analysts compare the March figure with prior months and seasonal patterns to assess momentum.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about the published ONS retail sales statistic and related settlement rules; interpret prices as a real-time aggregation of trader views rather than a fixed forecast, and always cross-check contract settlement criteria before drawing conclusions.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) issues the monthly retail sales bulletin; release timing varies by year but is posted in the ONS release calendar. This market will settle according to the contract's settlement rules tied to the ONS publication date—check the market page for the exact settlement trigger and any settlement window.
Each outcome corresponds to the contract-defined range or categorical definition based on the ONS retail sales metric (for example ranges of month-on-month or year-on-year change, or discrete labeled buckets). Consult the market's outcome descriptions and rules page for the exact numeric boundaries and whether the market uses volume, value, or seasonally adjusted series.
Settlement depends on the market's specified source and version of the ONS statistic. Some contracts settle on the first published ONS estimate, others state a specific revision period or final series. Always read the contract's settlement clause to know which published figure determines the outcome.
Key preparatory signals include monthly consumer confidence surveys, employment and wage releases, CPI inflation prints, business and retail sales flash reports from major chains, and any announcements on policy or disposable-income support that could influence March spending.
The ONS is the official data provider; other stakeholders include the Bank of England (policy and commentary), retail trade bodies (e.g., British Retail Consortium) and large retail chains (sales and promotional calendars). Market participants—traders, economists and media—react to the print and to subsequent commentary and revisions.