| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market aggregates expectations for how UK retail sales performed in February 2026 and whether the official reading will fall into one of the specified outcome categories. The result matters because retail spending is a key gauge of consumer demand and can influence market sentiment and policy decisions.
The Office for National Statistics publishes monthly UK retail sales figures, typically providing both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted series; February results are interpreted against recent months and year-ago comparators. In recent years retail data have been affected by inflation, wage growth, energy costs, shifting online vs in-store patterns, and occasional strike or weather disruptions, so contextual comparison is essential. Market reactions hinge on surprises relative to expectations and the implications for growth and inflation dynamics.
Prediction market odds on this page represent the collective, real-time view of traders about the February 2026 retail sales outcome and will update as new information arrives. Treat those odds as a measure of market sentiment and information aggregation, not as a definitive forecast.
The market operator sets the market close time on the event page; the official retail sales release is published by the Office for National Statistics, typically several weeks after the month ends (commonly in mid-March), so check the market page and the ONS release calendar for exact timestamps.
The eight outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive categories defined by the market creator (for example directional outcomes or numeric ranges for the February 2026 retail-sales reading); consult the outcome descriptions on the event page for the precise definitions used to settle the market.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the authoritative source; the ONS compiles retail sales using retailer surveys, administrative data, and seasonal adjustment methodology, and the market will use the ONS release as the settlement reference.
Seasonally adjusted series smooth predictable seasonal patterns and trading-day effects, while non-seasonally-adjusted data show raw month-to-month changes; analysts typically compare both series, look at three-month rolling averages and year-on-year changes, and account for calendar anomalies such as trading-day counts, holiday timing, or unseasonable weather.
High-frequency indicators such as card-transaction and retailer sales tracker data, consumer confidence surveys, wage and employment reports, CPI inflation updates, major retailers' earnings or trading updates, Bank of England commentary, and unexpected events (severe weather, strikes, fiscal announcements) are the most likely to shift market expectations before the official release.