| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROC recycle removal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cancellation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Index change | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market concerns whether and how the UK Renewables Obligation (RO) will be changed; the outcomes capture whether specified legislative or regulatory amendments are enacted. These potential changes matter for investors, electricity suppliers, and the pace and cost of the UK's low‑carbon transition.
The RO is a long‑standing UK mechanism that has required suppliers to source a portion of electricity from qualifying renewables using certificates and banding arrangements. Over time policy has shifted toward newer support mechanisms and periodic reviews have adjusted eligibility, banding and closure arrangements. Any proposed RO reforms are considered in the context of net‑zero commitments, fiscal constraints, and wider energy policy.
Market odds aggregate trader expectations about whether the stated RO changes will occur under the event's resolution terms. Interpret odds as a live consensus that will respond to government announcements, consultations, and regulatory decisions rather than as a fixed prediction.
Primary responsibility rests with the UK government and relevant ministers (currently in DESNZ), supported by HM Treasury for fiscal matters, and implemented through Parliament and statutory instruments; Ofgem and devolved administrations play roles in regulation and regional arrangements.
Actions include statutory amendments to the RO, formal changes to ROC banding or eligibility, altered supplier obligation levels, or official decisions to open/close parts of the scheme; minor administrative guidance may not meet the market's resolution criteria, so check the event rules for exact definitions.
Monitor government consultations, white papers, impact assessments, ministerial statements, secondary legislation laid before Parliament, and Ofgem consultations—budget and energy policy statements are common moments for decisive announcements.
Past reforms have influenced revenue certainty, ROC values, and project financing timetables—changes can shift incentives between technologies, speed up or slow project commissioning, and alter supplier compliance costs.
Definitive evidence typically comes from UK legislation or statutory instruments, formal ministerial announcements recorded in Hansard, DESNZ publications or policy statements, and Ofgem determinations; consult the market's resolution rules to see which documents will be accepted.