| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $3.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.5 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.7 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.9 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $4.5 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will correspond to the United Kingdom's nominal GDP in calendar year 2026; it matters because the published nominal GDP level affects fiscal planning, bond markets, and business revenue expectations.
Nominal GDP is the economy's output measured in current prices, so the 2026 number will reflect both real growth and the price level that year. Recent years have seen effects from inflation dynamics, exchange-rate moves, and post‑Brexit trade patterns; the 2026 outcome will integrate those trends plus policy choices made during the year. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the usual source of official UK GDP figures, and market participants watch ONS releases closely.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations about the ONS‑published 2026 nominal GDP outcome and update as new information arrives; they should be read as a consensus signal that changes with incoming data, policy moves, and news.
Settlement is based on the specific ONS nominal GDP series and publication specified in the contract rules; check the market page or contract text for the exact ONS release and series vintage used for finalization.
The market shows 'Closes: TBD' on the event page; final trading and settlement timing follow the schedule and cutoffs listed in the contract rules, which typically tie closure to the ONS publication date/time identified by the market.
How revisions are handled depends on the contract's settlement rules: some contracts settle on the first ONS publication of the 2026 figure, while others specify a particular vintage or allow later revisions—always confirm the contract's settlement clause.
High‑frequency indicators such as monthly GDP proxies, PMI surveys, CPI and PPI inflation readings, labor market reports, Bank of England announcements, and major fiscal statements can all shift expectations for nominal GDP in 2026.
Participants include macro traders, economists, fixed‑income and FX desks, and informed retail traders; primary information sources are ONS releases, Bank of England communications, HM Treasury publications, business surveys, and market data on prices and trade flows.