| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.05 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.75 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.65 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.45 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.55 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.15 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.85 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.25 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.35 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.8 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.95 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.9 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the average daily number of TSA checkpoint check-ins will be for the week of March 9–15, 2026. It matters because TSA throughput is a timely indicator of U.S. travel demand and economic activity in the short term.
TSA publishes daily traveler throughput counts that market participants and analysts use to track air travel trends, seasonality, and demand shocks. The week in question sits in early March, a period that can be affected by spring-break travel patterns, weather disruptions, airline schedule changes, and special events that concentrate travel on particular days.
Market outcomes correspond to ranges or bins of the averaged TSA daily checkpoint counts for March 9–15, 2026 as measured by TSA's official daily totals; settlement will rely on the TSA data series used by the exchange. Interpret quoted prices as market views on which range the TSA-reported average will fall into, not as official TSA figures.
Settlement will use the TSA daily checkpoint totals for the dates March 9 through March 15, 2026 as published by TSA; the event average is the arithmetic mean of those seven daily totals per the exchange's stated settlement methodology.
The market relies on TSA's official daily traveler throughput figures (the TSA checkpoint travel numbers) for each calendar date in the period; the exchange will cite the specific TSA data feed or webpage it uses when finalizing settlement.
Yes — each calendar date in the March 9–15 range is included equally when computing the arithmetic average unless the market rules specify an alternate weighting; check the event's settlement rules for details.
If TSA issues post-publication corrections, the exchange's settlement policy determines whether and how those revisions are handled; participants should consult the market's official rules to see whether initial published values or revised figures are authoritative for settlement.
The event page currently shows the close time as TBD; the market will announce a specific trading deadline and a settlement window tied to TSA's publication schedule — check the Kalshi event page for the posted close time and the exchange's timeline for finalizing results after TSA releases the week’s data.