| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.8 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.85 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.9 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.95 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.05 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.15 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.25 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.35 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.45 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.55 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.65 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.75 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market concerns the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) average daily passenger check-ins for the week of March 23–29, 2026, a near‑term indicator of U.S. air travel demand that matters to airlines, airports, and economists tracking consumer activity.
TSA checkpoint throughput is commonly used as a high‑frequency proxy for air travel volumes and short‑run economic mobility. Late March often coincides with varied spring‑break schedules across regions, airline schedule changes, and seasonal demand shifts that can move weekly averages materially compared with other weeks.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader expectations about which outcome bin will contain the week’s average TSA check‑in figure; treat prices as a real‑time signal that complements — but does not replace — the official TSA daily reports and other travel data.
It is the seven‑day average of TSA checkpoint passenger counts for March 23–29, 2026, calculated from the TSA’s official daily checkpoint throughput numbers and used to determine which outcome bin settles.
The 21 outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive ranges (bins) of average daily TSA check‑ins; after TSA releases the official daily counts for the week, the reported seven‑day average will fall into exactly one bin, and that bin will be the settled outcome.
Settlement is based on the TSA’s publicly released daily checkpoint counts published by the agency; exact settlement timing depends on the market operator’s rules and when TSA posts the final data for March 23–29, 2026.
Announcements or forecasts of major weather disruptions, large airline cancellations or schedule changes, airport operational problems or labor actions, sudden travel advisories, and unexpected promotions or demand shocks tied to regional spring‑break patterns can all move prices.
Use the market as a live consensus signal of expected weekly travel volumes and compare it with historical TSA patterns and other real‑time indicators (airline bookings, flight load factors). Always confirm conclusions against the official TSA data at settlement and account for intra‑week volatility and potential data revisions.