| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.4 million | 59% | 53¢ | 58¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Above 2.45 million | 8% | 8¢ | 10¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Above 2.5 million | 4% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above 2.35 million | 95% | 92¢ | 95¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above 2.6 million | 3% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Above 2.25 million | 95% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Above 2.55 million | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $673 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8 million | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $523 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7 million | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $424 | Trade → |
| Above 2.65 million | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $383 | Trade → |
| Above 2.75 million | 5% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $122 | Trade → |
| Above 1.8 million | 95% | 95¢ | 100¢ | — | $66 | Trade → |
| Above 1.9 million | 0% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3 million | 0% | 92¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.05 million | 0% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.85 million | 0% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 million | 0% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1 million | 0% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2 million | 0% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.15 million | 0% | 95¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.95 million | 0% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) average daily checkpoint counts will be for the week of March 2–8, 2026. It matters because TSA checkpoint volumes are a timely gauge of air travel demand and short‑term economic activity in the travel sector.
TSA publishes daily checkpoint counts that analysts and market participants use to track passenger flow and travel seasonality; markets like this aggregate expectations about that reported average for a specific week. Early March can be affected by spring break travel patterns, lingering winter weather, airline schedule changes, and broader economic conditions that influence consumer travel decisions. Historical patterns and recent trends in airline operations and public health or policy developments provide context for how this particular week might compare to past years.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective assessment of where the market expects the official TSA average for Mar 2–8, 2026 to land, updating as new information arrives. Use prices as a summary of public expectations, not as an official TSA forecast; the market will settle to the TSA‑reported figure when the agency publishes its counts.
It measures the average daily TSA checkpoint passenger counts for the seven‑day period March 2–8, 2026, as calculated from the official TSA daily counts that the exchange will use for settlement.
The market's close time is set by the exchange and may be announced later; settlement will use the official TSA daily checkpoint counts for March 2–8, 2026 as published by TSA or the designated official source, and the market will settle to the reported average per the exchange's settlement rules.
Compare the week to prior early‑March checkpoints in recent years, noting differences between pre‑pandemic baselines and more recent travel trends, and adjust for whether that specific week historically coincides with spring break or other large travel events.
Major airline schedule changes or mass cancellations, significant winter storms affecting large parts of the country, announced TSA staffing or procedural changes, large labor actions at airlines or airports, and sudden public health advisories are the most likely catalysts for sharp market moves.
Settlement will rely on TSA's official daily checkpoint counts (and any designated official aggregator). Key actors that influence those counts include travelers, airlines (schedules and cancellations), airport operations, and TSA staffing and policy decisions.