| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.8 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.95 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.9 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.85 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.05 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.25 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.45 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.55 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.35 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.65 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.8 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.75 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.15 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the average daily number of TSA checkpoint check-ins will be for the seven-day window March 16–22, 2026. It matters because TSA checkpoint throughput is a high-frequency indicator of domestic air travel demand and can reflect broader economic and travel trends.
TSA posts daily checkpoint travel numbers that track passenger volumes through airport security; averages over a week capture both business and leisure travel patterns. Seasonal effects (spring break, conference schedules, sports events) and episodic shocks (weather, airline disruptions, labor actions) have historically driven meaningful week-to-week variation in these counts.
Market prices on this contract represent collective expectations about the final average as reported by TSA for the specified dates; they are best read as the market’s consensus view of the likely range of outcomes rather than a definitive forecast.
The contract will settle to the average of TSA’s official daily checkpoint travel numbers published for each calendar day from March 16 through March 22, 2026, using the data source and settlement rules specified by the exchange.
This market covers the full seven‑day period March 16–22, 2026, so the arithmetic mean includes all seven calendar days as reported by TSA.
Single‑day shocks—large storms, mass cancellations, or major one‑day events—can shift the seven‑day average materially because the mean aggregates each day equally; the impact depends on the magnitude and duration of the disruption.
Settlement follows the exchange’s contract specifications, which typically reference TSA’s official published dataset as of the exchange’s defined settlement cutoff; consult the market’s rulebook for how post-publication revisions and disputes are handled.
Watch TSA daily travel reports, airline operational status updates, weather forecasts for major hubs, announcements of large events or conference cancellations, and any labor or policy developments affecting airports or carriers.