| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.4 or below | 4% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 42.8 to 43.0 | 15% | 16¢ | 22¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 43.4 to 43.6 | 24% | 26¢ | 36¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 42.5 to 42.7 | 5% | 6¢ | 7¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 43.1 to 43.3 | 37% | 37¢ | 52¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 43.7 to 43.9 | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | — | $709 | Trade → |
| 44.3 or above | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $459 | Trade → |
| 44.0 to 44.2 | 2% | 2¢ | 9¢ | — | $248 | Trade → |
This market asks what Donald Trump's public approval rating will be on March 6, 2026, as determined by the resolution rules on the event page. It matters because approval ratings are a widely used indicator of public sentiment and can influence political strategy, media coverage, and market expectations.
The market is built against the political backdrop of the 2024–2028 presidential cycle, ongoing policy debates, and legal and geopolitical developments that have shaped Trump's public standing since his prior terms. The event lists eight discrete outcomes (mutually exclusive buckets) that will resolve according to the specific poll or aggregation method named in the market's resolution criteria.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which outcome will be realized, updating as new information arrives; they should be read as a summary of available information and sentiment, not as a definitive forecast. Because prices change in real time, use them alongside polls, fundamentals, and news for decision-making.
Resolution will follow the event's official rules posted on the market page: the named poll, polling aggregator, or official source with a reporting date of March 6, 2026 will determine which outcome wins. Check the event description for the exact resolution source and tie-breaking procedures.
The eight outcomes are mutually exclusive buckets that each correspond to a specific approval-rating range or precise value defined in the event listing; the winning bucket is the one that contains the resolved approval figure from the designated source.
Volume indicates recent trading activity and liquidity: higher volume generally means more active price discovery and easier entry/exit, while lower volume can mean wider spreads and greater sensitivity to individual trades. Use volume as one input when assessing market robustness.
The determining poll will be the one specified in the market’s resolution language. If the event uses an aggregator or a single named poll, that is the authoritative source; if the description is unclear, consult the platform’s resolution policy or contact support before trading.
Short-term movers include major campaign announcements, legal judgments or filings involving Trump, high-profile media coverage, late-breaking investigative reporting, and sudden shifts in the national political agenda driven by domestic or international crises.