| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.7 to 43.9 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42.4 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43.1 to 43.3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44.0 to 44.2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44.3 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43.4 to 43.6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42.5 to 42.7 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42.8 to 43.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what former President Donald Trump's national approval rating will be on March 20, 2026, as represented by the listed outcomes on Kalshi. It matters because approval ratings provide a snapshot of public sentiment that can influence campaign strategy, media narratives, and investor or voter expectations.
Approval ratings for a former or sitting president reflect aggregate public opinion at a point in time and are shaped by recent events, policy developments, legal matters, and the broader political and economic environment. Historically, approval measures can move with major news cycles, campaign milestones, and shifts in economic indicators; they also differ across pollsters depending on methodology and timing. This market uses a discrete set of outcomes (eight) to represent ranges or buckets of possible approval values on the specified date.
Prediction market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of which outcome will be realized, not a definitive measurement of public opinion; they update as new information arrives. To know exactly how this contract will settle, consult the market description on Kalshi for the contract's stated settlement source and rules.
Settlement follows the contract terms specified on Kalshi: the market description will state the exact data source and whether settlement uses a specific poll result, an average, or another official metric. Check the contract page for the named settlement source and any tie-breaking procedure.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined approval-rating band or discrete value as defined in the market listing. The contract page will list the exact ranges or values for the eight outcomes — review that listing before trading to understand what each outcome means.
Polls report field dates that may span several days; the contract will specify whether settlement uses a poll whose fielding includes Mar 20, a poll released on that date, or an official estimate tied to that date. Pay attention to the settlement definition to know how poll timing maps to the market date.
Zero volume means no tracked trades have occurred yet, which can imply low liquidity and wider spreads. 'Closes: TBD' indicates the platform has not fixed a trading cutoff time; monitor the market page for updates and factor in liquidity and execution risk when sizing positions.
Events with broad public visibility—major legal developments involving the former president, campaign milestones (announcements, debates), large-scale economic news, or international crises—tend to move aggregate approval metrics and therefore market pricing. The magnitude of movement depends on perceived importance and media reach.