| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.0 to 44.2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44.3 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42.5 to 42.7 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43.7 to 43.9 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42.8 to 43.0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43.4 to 43.6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42.4 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43.1 to 43.3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what Donald Trump's national approval rating will be on March 13, 2026. It matters because approval ratings summarize public sentiment and can influence campaign strategy, media coverage, and political narratives.
Approval ratings are measured by national polls and can move with legal developments, campaign activity, economic news, and major events. Historically, high-profile political figures see short-term volatility around breaking news and longer-term trends tied to economic conditions and campaign cycles. In the months before March 13, 2026, ongoing legal, political, and economic developments are likely to shape public sentiment.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders given available information and should be read as a real-time summary of beliefs rather than a definitive forecast. Always consult the market's official contract terms to see how the reported approval rating will be defined and measured for resolution.
The market's contract on Kalshi specifies the exact source(s), question wording, and time window used to determine the approval rating; consult the contract's resolution clause for that definition. The market will resolve to the outcome that contains the validated reported figure according to those rules.
Each of the eight outcomes corresponds to a predefined approval-rating range or bucket listed on the market page; the contract assigns the outcome whose range contains the verified reported rating on March 13, 2026.
The market close time is listed on the Kalshi market page (currently TBD); check that page for updates. Resolution will occur after the relevant data point for March 13, 2026 becomes available and within the resolution window specified in the contract.
Significant legal rulings or filings, major campaign announcements or events, high-profile media coverage, key economic releases, and unexpected national or international crises can all shift public approval and produce notable price moves.
Price moves reflect traders rapidly incorporating information and expectations, while polls are discrete measurements subject to sampling error and timing. Compare market prices with recent polls and remember to account for the contract's resolution source, poll methodology, and the timing of when poll data were collected.