| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 12% | 7¢ | 9¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 160-179 | 10% | 8¢ | 11¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 120-139 | 25% | 24¢ | 25¢ | — | $581 | Trade → |
| 100-119 | 24% | 23¢ | 24¢ | — | $551 | Trade → |
| 140-159 | 15% | 15¢ | 18¢ | — | $512 | Trade → |
| 80-99 | 10% | 10¢ | 11¢ | — | $141 | Trade → |
| 200-220 | 4% | 4¢ | 8¢ | — | $130 | Trade → |
| <80 | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $55 | Trade → |
| >220 | 2% | 2¢ | 6¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
This prediction market tracks whether and how often Donald Trump will post on Truth Social during the week of March 8–14. Market outcomes are used by traders to express expectations about his communication activity, which can signal campaign focus or reactions to news.
Donald Trump has used Truth Social as a primary direct-communication channel since 2021, with posting frequency that varies around legal developments, campaign events, and major news cycles. Markets like this capture near-term expectations about his messaging cadence rather than long-term policy moves.
Prices in this market reflect the collective expectations of traders about posting activity over the specified week; they move as new information arrives (schedules, court dates, events, or media coverage) and should be read as dynamic, not fixed, signals.
Resolution depends on the market's contract text; typically it counts public posts made on Trump's official Truth Social account during the specified window. Whether reposts, replies, or threaded updates count is determined by the event description—check the market page and resolution rules.
The market's resolution rules specify the inclusive start and end times and the timezone used. If the page doesn't state it, consult the contract details or exchange FAQ; tweets/posts are evaluated by their platform timestamps relative to that declared timezone.
How deletions are handled is set by the market's resolution policy. Many contracts count posts based on timestamps and archived evidence even if later deleted, while others may require a post to remain visible at a particular check time—verify the event's resolution criteria.
Look at past weeks around comparable triggers: legal filings and hearings, campaign announcements, debates, or major news cycles. Also note weekday vs weekend frequency and whether there are scheduled events that previously produced spikes in posting.
Key drivers include Trump himself and his communications team, any scheduled campaign events or rallies, court dates or filings released that week, breaking national news, and platform or account access issues that could enable or limit posting.