| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-119 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 160-179 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 140-159 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80-99 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| <80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| >220 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 120-139 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 200-220 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 180-199 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether former President Trump will publish one or more posts on his Truth Social account during the week of March 15–21. It matters because his posts can shape media cycles, campaign messaging, and supporter mobilization during that specific week.
Trump has frequently used Truth Social as a primary direct-communication channel since leaving major platforms, with posting frequency that varies with news developments, legal matters, and campaign activity. Weekly event markets like this isolate a short time window so traders can express views about near-term likelihoods driven by the calendar and breaking events.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants about whether posts will occur in the specified window and will move as new information emerges; they are not guarantees but real-time signals that update with news and actions by key players.
Consult the market's official contract text on the Kalshi page for the definitive resolution criteria; typically a 'post' means a new, publicly visible message published by the specified Truth Social account during the calendar window, but the contract will specify whether replies, reposts, or identical content are included.
The event title gives the calendar window (March 15–21) but the market contract defines the exact close time and time zone used for resolution; check the Kalshi contract for the precise opening and closing timestamps and any tie-breaking rules.
Resolution rules vary by market; many resolution procedures require that a post be publicly visible during the window to count, while some rely on platform timestamps or archival records—refer to the contract or official resolution FAQ for the final policy.
Most event contracts are specific to a particular account (for example, the former President's verified Truth Social handle); posts by other accounts or surrogates typically do not count unless the contract explicitly includes them.
Announcements of scheduled appearances or court activity, sudden breaking news related to Trump, official campaign messaging choices, or platform outages/moderation actions are the main catalysts that can quickly change traders' assessments for this specific week.