| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >220 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| 180-199 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 200-220 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 120-139 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 160-179 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 140-159 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| <80 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 100-119 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 80-99 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks whether former President Donald Trump will publish posts on Truth Social during the week of March 1–7. It matters because his posts often shape campaign messaging and media coverage, so the question captures short‑term political signaling.
Truth Social has been a primary direct channel for Trump and his team to communicate outside mainstream platforms; his posting patterns have varied with legal developments, campaign strategy, and major news events. Markets like this aggregate trader views about whether he will use that channel in a specified week and respond quickly to breaking events that could prompt or suppress posting.
Prediction market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which outcome will occur, and they update as new information appears; they are not guarantees but a real‑time summary of market participants’ beliefs. For final settlement specifics and authoritative definitions, consult the market’s official rules on the exchange.
Settlement depends on the market’s official definition; commonly, markets count original posts published from the specified account during the date range. Reposts, third‑party posts, or statements in other media may not qualify—always check the exchange’s settlement text for the definitive rule.
The exchange’s market page or rulebook specifies the timezone and exact start/end timestamps used for settlement. If the market page does not state a timezone, consult the exchange’s general settlement policies or contact support for clarification.
That depends on how the market’s outcomes are framed (e.g., binary yes/no, or buckets by number of posts). Typically, the single outcome that matches the total count of qualifying posts in the window will be declared the winner—confirm by reviewing the outcome descriptions.
Most markets specify which account(s) qualify; settlement usually requires posts from the named account (e.g., the former president’s verified account) rather than staff or proxy accounts. Check the market’s qualifying account list in the official rules.
Outages or moderation can prevent posts from appearing, changing the actual outcome; exchanges generally settle based on what was published in the window. For extraordinary situations, review the exchange’s force‑majeure or contingency procedures that explain how such events are handled.