| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-2 AM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2-3 AM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3-4 AM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4-5 AM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5-6 AM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will publish a post on his social media platform Truth Social during late-night hours between April 19 and April 25. It serves as an indicator of his social media engagement patterns and his communication strategy during the specified timeframe.
Donald Trump is known for his unconventional and frequent use of social media, often utilizing late-night hours to comment on breaking news, political opponents, or personal grievances. Historically, these posts have served as a primary outlet for his messaging, often driving the news cycle the following morning. Monitoring these posts provides insight into his current focus and his reactivity to ongoing legal or political events.
Market prices represent the aggregate sentiment regarding the likelihood of a post occurring within the defined window, reflecting expectations based on his habitual posting behaviors.
Late night is typically defined by the platform as posts occurring outside of standard business hours, generally between midnight and early morning, as specified by the market rules.
No, this market is specific to posts made on the Truth Social platform, which is the primary channel for the subject's official communications.
The resolution is determined by whether a post is successfully verified on the platform; technical outages are generally considered part of the risk profile for this market.
Usually, only original content posts are counted; refer to the specific market rule set regarding whether interactions or resharing qualify as a post.
The market typically defaults to Eastern Time (ET), reflecting the subject's primary residence and the most common time zone associated with his public announcements.