| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which range the 3‑month U.S. Treasury yield will fall into at the end of Q1 2026; short‑term Treasury yields are a key barometer of monetary policy expectations and money‑market conditions. Outcomes matter for cash investors, corporations rolling short‑term funding, and financial stability via funding costs.
The 3‑month Treasury yield reflects immediate expectations about Federal Reserve policy, short‑term liquidity, and demand for safe, liquid assets. Historically it moves with Fed policy shifts, quarter‑end technical flows, Treasury bill supply, and major macro releases such as inflation and payrolls. Quarter‑end dates can also produce temporary distortions from balance‑sheet management, cash rebalancing, and large corporate or governmental flows.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations about which outcome will obtain by the settlement timestamp; they shift as new data, Fed communications, and supply/demand dynamics arrive. Prices indicate consensus likelihoods but are not guarantees of the actual end‑of‑quarter yield.
Q1 ends on March 31, 2026; the contract's settlement rules on the event page specify the precise timestamp and time zone used for measuring the yield—check that section for the official cutoff.
The market contract lists the authoritative data source and series used for settlement (commonly a Federal Reserve or Treasury daily yield publication); consult the event rules on the Kalshi page to confirm the exact source and series.
Key drivers are scheduled Fed policy meetings and major macro releases such as monthly inflation reports, the employment situation, and consumer spending metrics; check the Fed and economic calendars for exact dates to see what will arrive before quarter‑end.
Larger than expected bill auctions or concentrated issuance can raise short‑term supply pressures and push up yields if demand is insufficient, while light issuance or strong demand can compress yields; auction calendars and dealer demand levels are relevant to monitor.
Settlement and dispute procedures are governed by the contract terms listed on the event page; typically the published figure at the specified source and timestamp is used, and the event rules describe how retroactive corrections or disputes are resolved.