| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 80 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether specified maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will meet defined criteria during March 9–15; it matters because traffic levels there influence global energy and trade flows and react quickly to regional events.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is a major route for oil and liquefied natural gas exports. Historical incidents—naval confrontations, sanctions, and attacks on commercial vessels—have periodically disrupted transits, causing rapid market and shipping responses.
Prediction market prices reflect collective expectations about whether the market’s stated traffic condition will be met in the March 9–15 window and will move as news and data arrive; consult the contract’s settlement rules to understand exactly what outcome the market resolves on.
The market measures whether the specific traffic condition stated in the contract occurs during the March 9–15 window; the contract text and settlement description define whether that is a transit count, presence of particular vessel types, or an incident-based outcome.
Inclusions depend on the contract’s definition—many markets count commercial merchant transits detected by AIS or listed by tracking services and exclude warships or small local craft; check the event’s settlement rules for the exact vessel categories.
Settlement typically relies on publicly available data such as AIS aggregators, shipping intelligence services, port or coast guard reports, and official statements; the contract page lists which specific sources will be used to settle this event.
A credible military incident can immediately reduce transits by causing rerouting, delays, or temporary closures and will usually prompt rapid price moves as participants update expectations; the magnitude depends on perceived duration and severity.
Sudden moves reflect new information or revised interpretations of reports; verify original sources, consider reporting lags or AIS anomalies, and check the contract’s cutoff and settlement procedures before assuming a move reflects final outcome probability.