| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 50 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 70 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 40 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether commercial maritime traffic will transit the Strait of Hormuz during the week labeled 3/16–3/22. It matters because traffic through the strait rapidly reflects regional security, energy flows, and global shipping risk for that specific week.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is a frequent flashpoint for geopolitical tensions involving Iran, regional states, and extra‑regional navies. Historical incidents — including attacks on vessels, mine threats, and periodic naval patrols — have produced short‑term disruptions to vessel transits, insurance costs, and rerouting decisions.
Prediction market prices aggregate current market expectations about transits during the specified week; interpret them as a real‑time consensus signal about the likelihood of observed traffic outcomes, not as a deterministic forecast.
It refers to vessel transits recorded during that calendar window; markets typically rely on AIS and port/agency reports for counts, but you should read the market's outcome definitions or data source notes to confirm which vessel types and time zones are included.
Most public traffic measures count commercial merchant vessels that broadcast AIS (tankers, bulk carriers, container ships, LNG carriers); naval or non‑AIS movements may be omitted or undercounted, so check the market’s documentation for precise inclusion rules.
Nowruz can change government staffing, port operations, and local security postures; some operators adjust schedules around the holiday, and authorities sometimes modify patrol patterns or advisory levels, any of which could influence observed transits during the week.
That value indicates no trades have been recorded on the exchange for this market so far; it does not reflect actual vessel traffic but only current market activity and liquidity.
Review recent examples of regional attacks on commercial shipping, past periods of elevated naval patrols or embargoes, and instances where insurance advisories or convoy requirements caused rerouting; these precedents show how quickly traffic can change in response to security and policy shifts.