| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 38.64T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 38.69T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 38.74T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 38.79T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 38.84T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 38.89T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 38.94T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 38.99T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.04T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.09T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.14T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.19T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.24T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.29T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 39.34T | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the total amount of outstanding U.S. federal public debt as recorded on April 20, 2026. Tracking the national debt is a primary indicator of fiscal health and a focal point for debates regarding government spending, taxation, and long-term economic stability.
The U.S. national debt is influenced by mandatory spending programs, discretionary budget allocations, and interest costs on existing debt. Because the Treasury must issue securities to cover fiscal deficits, the debt total generally follows an upward trajectory, subject to legislative debt ceiling adjustments and shifts in tax revenue.
The market prices reflect the aggregate expectations of participants regarding fiscal policy outcomes and macroeconomic conditions leading up to the spring of 2026.
The official figure is sourced from the 'Total Public Debt Outstanding' data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury via the Daily Treasury Statement.
By April, the government is typically halfway through its fiscal year; tax filing season often creates temporary fluctuations in cash balances and debt issuance requirements.
The 'Total Public Debt' figure includes both debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings, representing the entirety of the federal government's legal debt obligations.
Yes, large-scale stimulus packages, tax reforms, or changes in mandatory spending programs can alter the pace of deficit accumulation, directly affecting the final debt total.
The market typically relies on the data provided for that specific business day as reported in the official Treasury Daily Statement issued following the close of the reference date.