| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before February | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before July | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Tim Walz will be out as Governor of Minnesota. The outcome matters for state leadership, policy direction, and legislative control in Minnesota.
Tim Walz, a former U.S. Representative and Army veteran, was elected governor in 2018 and reelected in 2022; governors leaving midterm in Minnesota are historically uncommon. Minnesota governance is shaped by constitutional succession rules and the state legislative calendar, and any change in the governor’s status can have immediate administrative and political consequences.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about whether and when Walz might leave office; they respond to new facts (resignations, charges, legislative action, appointments). Treat prices as evolving signals, not guarantees, and watch for official announcements and contract definitions.
Check the contract page for exact outcome definitions; generally, markets like this treat definitive changes in holding the office—such as resignation, removal following conviction, or succession by the lieutenant governor—as events that make a governor "out." Outcome definitions on the exchange determine which scenarios qualify.
Under Minnesota’s constitutional succession rules, the lieutenant governor succeeds to the governorship; statutory procedures govern the timing of swearing-in and any related administrative steps.
Impeachment would be major news: the Minnesota House would need to bring articles of impeachment and the Senate would hold a trial; formal impeachment proceedings and any conviction or dismissal are the kinds of developments traders use to update expectations.
Recall mechanisms vary by state and are not commonly used for Minnesota governors; impeachment is the primary constitutional removal route—consult the state statutes and legal precedent for definitive guidance on recall possibilities.
Watch official statements from the governor’s office, lieutenant governor, Minnesota Legislature calendars, court filings or indictments, any announced resignation or appointment, and the exchange’s posted close date or contract rules—each can materially affect the market.