| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest ever | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether March 2026 will be the warmest March in the instrumental record; it matters because single-month records are a near-term indicator of the pace of climate variability and ongoing long-term warming.
Global mean temperatures have trended upward for decades due to greenhouse gas forcing, while interannual variability—especially ENSO (El Niño/La Niña)—can produce temporary spikes or dips in monthly temperatures. Recent years have produced numerous monthly records, and monthly markets like this capture how scientists, traders, and the public expect those influences to combine in a particular month.
Market prices aggregate participant beliefs about the likelihood of the outcome and will move as new observational data and forecasts arrive. Because prices change in real time, use them as a summary of collective information and uncertainty rather than a fixed probability.
Resolution timing and the official settlement dataset are specified by the market's rules on the platform; because the event lists 'Closes: TBD', consult the market page or KALSHI's event rules to see the dataset (e.g., NOAA, NASA GISS, Berkeley Earth, Copernicus) and the cutoff for final values.
The precise definition depends on the metric named in the event rules; most global monthly record markets use a global mean surface temperature metric (land+sea) for the calendar month, so check the event details to confirm which metric the market will use.
Common authoritative sources are NOAA NCEI, NASA GISS, Berkeley Earth, and Copernicus/ERA5; a market usually specifies one of these or another single source for settlement because small methodological differences can change a close outcome.
That depends on the platform's settlement policy: some markets settle to the first official publication, others wait for a final revised value within a stated window. Review the event's settlement rules to see whether revisions are eligible to alter the result.
Watch updated ENSO forecasts, sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and key midlatitude regions, real-time ocean heat content and marine heatwave reports, large-scale atmospheric blocking or heat-wave patterns, and any sudden volcanic activity that could inject aerosols into the stratosphere.