| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest ever | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
This market asks whether February 2026 will be the warmest February in the global instrumental record. The outcome matters because monthly records signal short-term variability superimposed on long-term climate change and attract attention from scientists, policymakers, and the public.
Global monthly temperature records are produced by several scientific groups that combine surface and sea-surface measurements into a global average; those groups occasionally report new monthly highs as the climate warms. Short-term climate drivers such as El Niño, volcanic aerosols, and atmospheric circulation patterns can push a given month above prior records even as the long-term trend continues upward.
Market prices are an aggregated forecast reflecting current information about drivers, observations, and data-release schedules; interpret them as a consensus forecast, not a guaranteed outcome. Always check the contract’s settlement rules to know which dataset and definition will determine the final result.
The contract will specify a precise definition and source (for example, a named global temperature dataset and metric). Read the market’s settlement terms to see whether it uses a particular agency’s monthly global anomaly, a consensus product, or another specified measure.
Major temperature analyses publish provisional monthly values in the days to weeks after month end and may issue later updates; the market will settle based on the dataset and timing stated in the contract. Check the contract for any specific cutoff or finalization date tied to that dataset.
Common sources include NOAA/NCEI, NASA GISTEMP, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and national agencies; they differ in station coverage, sea‑surface treatment, bias corrections, and baseline reference periods, which can produce small differences in the ranked monthly values.
El Niño raises global average temperatures by increasing tropical ocean heat and altering atmospheric circulation; other short-term drivers—like the Arctic Oscillation, MJO phases, or volcanic aerosols—can amplify or suppress monthly anomalies and therefore affect whether a month breaks a record.
Resolution depends on the contract’s specified source: if a single dataset is named, that dataset determines settlement; if a composite or alternative procedure is specified, settlement follows that rule. If the contract is ambiguous, consult the market rules or operator for the official resolution method.