| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest ever | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether April 2026 will be the warmest April on record in the chosen global temperature dataset. It matters because monthly temperature records are near-term indicators of how background warming and natural variability combine to produce extreme months.
Global monthly temperature records reflect a long-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions combined with short-term variability from ocean–atmosphere cycles and atmospheric circulation. El Niño events, Arctic sea-ice conditions, volcanic aerosols, and large-scale weather patterns can all push a given month above previous records. Different research groups maintain independent global temperature estimates, so comparisons typically use established datasets from national and international agencies.
Market odds here represent the aggregated expectations of traders about whether April 2026 will top the historical April record in the dataset specified by the market rules; they update as new observations and forecasts arrive and should be used as a probabilistic signal, not a guarantee.
Resolution depends on the market's official rules — they specify which global surface temperature dataset and whether the comparison is to the historical monthly maximum in that same dataset. Consult the KALSHI market rules for the exact dataset and definition used to determine the outcome.
The close time is listed as TBD on the event page; typically markets close before the month ends or shortly after, and the outcome is resolved after the relevant agency releases its official April global temperature and any contractual waiting period elapses. Check the market page and resolution policy for the exact schedule.
An El Niño pattern tends to raise global mean temperatures and increases the chance of record warm months, while La Niña tends to suppress them; the timing and strength of the ENSO state in late winter and spring are particularly influential for spring-month records.
Yes — datasets differ in methods, coverage, and baseline periods, and agencies occasionally revise their records. The market resolves to the dataset named in its rules, so dataset choice and any post-release revisions addressed by that dataset determine the official result for this market.
Traders typically watch persistent, widespread positive temperature anomalies in early April (and late March), strong tropical SST anomalies consistent with El Niño, broad regional heatwaves, rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, and absence of major volcanic aerosol events — together these increase the likelihood of a record month.