| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gina Hinojosa | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Beto O’Rourke | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Andrew White | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Bobby Cole | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Chris Bell | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $773 | Trade → |
| Lina Hidalgo | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $503 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic Party's official nominee for governor of Texas; it matters because the nominee determines the party's general-election strategy and affects statewide political dynamics.
Texas gubernatorial nominations are decided through the state Democratic primary process and any subsequent party procedures that certify a nominee. Historical factors—party organization, turnout patterns in Texas primaries, and the timing of candidacies and withdrawals—shape how nominees emerge.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregate expectations about who will be the officially recognized Texas Democratic gubernatorial nominee; interpret prices as a snapshot of consensus sentiment, not guarantees of outcome.
The market will resolve based on the candidate officially recognized as the Texas Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nominee according to the party’s certification or the state's official certification process; check the market's specific rules for the definitive resolution source.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a named individual (or an 'other' outcome) who could be certified as the Democratic nominee for Texas governor; the market reflects which listed name will be the final, officially recognized nominee.
Withdrawals change the practical competitiveness of outcomes and typically shift market sentiment; resolution is unaffected by timing of withdrawal—only the officially certified nominee determines the final outcome.
If primary results are contested or subject to legal challenge, the market follows the official determination used by the market’s listed resolution authority (for example, party certification or state election certification) and may remain open until that authority provides a final result.
Endorsements and fundraising affect voter perceptions and campaign capacity, which can quickly shift trader expectations in this market as they alter the perceived likelihood that a given candidate will secure the party’s nomination.