| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnita Atwater | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tim Cyr | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jerri Green | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Adam Kurtz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be the Democratic nominee for governor of Tennessee; it matters because the nominee shapes the Democratic Party's statewide strategy and competitiveness in a state where party dynamics vary sharply between urban and rural areas.
Tennessee has trended Republican in recent statewide races, so the Democratic nominee will need to consolidate urban support in places like Nashville and Memphis while appealing to suburban voters to be competitive. Candidate recruitment, local party organization, and national attention can all change the dynamics of the contest; the state’s nomination is typically decided in a primary, with official certification following the vote.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which named candidate will be the official nominee, and they update as news, endorsements, fundraising, and polling arrive. Prices are a real‑time signal, not a definitive prediction, and can move quickly when the candidate field changes or when new information appears.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate name listed on the market or to an aggregated 'Other' option; check the market page for the exact labels used and which names are included.
The market will resolve once the market operator follows its stated resolution rules, typically when the Democratic nominee is officially certified following the primary or selection process; follow the market page for the announced close/resolution time.
Primary timing concentrates fundraising, advertising, and turnout efforts and often accelerates candidate withdrawals and endorsements; markets typically react strongly as the primary approaches and as early returns or certified results become available.
Major fundraising announcements, endorsements from statewide or influential local figures, polling releases showing shifts within the Democratic electorate, candidate withdrawals or formal declarations, and any legal or personal developments that change a candidate’s viability.
An 'Other' outcome typically pays out if the official Democratic nominee is not one of the named candidates on the market; review the market’s rules to confirm how 'Other' is defined and how late additions or withdrawals are handled.