| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stagflation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Soft landing | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Overheating | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Slack / disinflation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to select which of four discrete states best describes the U.S. state of the economy at the end of 2026; it matters because it aggregates diverse information about growth, inflation, and labor markets into a single, tradable signal.
Background context: the global economy has been navigating post-pandemic rebalancing, tightening monetary conditions in some jurisdictions, and geopolitical disruptions that affect trade and energy prices. Those forces, along with fiscal choices and supply‑chain normalization, shape the economic trajectory through 2026. This market provides a forward-looking snapshot that reflects how participants synthesize these trends.
How to interpret odds: market prices reflect the collective, continuously updated view of which outcome participants think is most consistent with available information; they are one input among many and change as new data, policy decisions, or shocks arrive.
The contract is divided into four mutually exclusive outcomes that partition possible macroeconomic states at the end of 2026 (each outcome maps to a distinct description or range defined on the market page). See the KALSHI contract listing for the precise outcome labels and settlement definitions.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement will follow the contract's specified rule, which typically references official government releases or a defined calendar date for the end of 2026—consult the contract terms on KALSHI for the authoritative settlement criteria and timing.
Monetary policy influences inflation expectations, interest rates, and demand with variable lags; incorporate FOMC decisions, forward guidance, and changes in the Fed’s outlook alongside incoming inflation and jobs data, while remembering that policy effects can take quarters to fully materialize.
Lower total volume can mean wider spreads and greater sensitivity to single large trades, so treat prices as informative but possibly noisy; combine the market signal with external data and be mindful of liquidity when interpreting or acting on price movements.
Key items include quarterly GDP reports, monthly payrolls and unemployment data, CPI and PCE inflation readings, Fed communications and rate decisions, major fiscal policy announcements, corporate earnings trends, and significant international developments that could alter global growth or commodity prices.