| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above -0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official 'flash' estimate of Spain's quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of 2026. As a primary indicator of economic health, this flash estimate provides the first glimpse into whether the Spanish economy is expanding, stagnating, or contracting during the start of the year.
Spain’s economy, driven heavily by its tourism, services, and construction sectors, is sensitive to shifts in Eurozone monetary policy and domestic consumption patterns. The 'flash' estimate is released by the National Statistics Institute (INE) ahead of finalized data, making it a pivotal moment for investors and policymakers to gauge short-term momentum. Historical volatility in this metric often reflects seasonal adjustments or external shocks impacting Mediterranean trade and energy costs.
The odds in this market reflect the collective expectation of market participants regarding the specific decimal range in which the final official GDP growth percentage will fall.
A 'flash' estimate is an early, preliminary release of economic data based on partial information, designed to provide a timely snapshot before the final, comprehensive report is completed by the INE.
The outcome is determined when the INE releases its official flash GDP report for Q1 2026, typically scheduled several weeks after the quarter ends.
This market specifically tracks the flash estimate; subsequent revisions made by the INE in later months will not affect the settlement of this contract.
The service sector, encompassing tourism, banking, and retail, constitutes the largest share of Spain’s GDP and is typically the primary driver of quarterly fluctuations.
As a member of the Eurozone, Spain's export-oriented economy is highly correlated with the growth of its major trading partners, such as Germany and France; an economic slowdown in the broader EU often translates to lower growth for Spain.