| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Dans | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lindsey Graham | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mark Lynch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Thomas Murphy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which candidate will become the South Carolina Republican nominee for U.S. Senate; that nominee determines the GOP’s general‑election challenger and shapes national Senate math and campaign strategy.
South Carolina selects its party nominees via a primary system that can include a runoff if no candidate meets the state's threshold for outright nomination. Recent cycles have seen competitive Republican primaries with national attention when a Senate seat is considered potentially pivotal.
Market prices reflect the aggregate expectations of traders based on available information and update as news arrives; they are a real‑time signal of how participants are weighing the likely nominee rather than a definitive prediction.
It means the market does not have a fixed closing time published on the page; resolution will follow the market’s stated rules, typically after the state party or election authorities certify the official nominee and any required runoffs conclude.
They correspond to the four choices listed on the market page (usually four named candidates or specific outcome options); traders should review the market interface to see exactly which candidates or options are included.
If no candidate meets the state’s threshold and a runoff is triggered, the market’s resolution will typically wait for the official runoff result; in the intervening period prices often shift materially as runoff dynamics and endorsements evolve.
KALSHI will follow its published event and resolution rules: outcomes are resolved based on the official nominee list at certification. If a listed candidate withdraws before resolution, the exchange will apply its rules (for example voiding or adjusting affected outcomes) and post an announcement.
Volume is a measure of liquidity and market interest—higher volume generally means easier trading and more information reflected in prices. However, volume alone doesn’t guarantee accuracy, so combine it with news, polling, and institutional signals when evaluating the market.