| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to beat: $87.4694 | 50% | 48¢ | 50¢ | — | $11 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the price of SOL will be higher or lower over a specific 15-minute observation window; it matters because very short-duration markets let traders express views on immediate price moves and on microstructure risks.
Solana (SOL) is a high-throughput blockchain whose token can exhibit rapid intraday swings driven by order-book activity, large wallet flows, and short-term sentiment. KALSHI’s short-window markets isolate a brief period of price movement, which highlights the importance of timing, the chosen reference price, and market liquidity.
Odds on this market reflect the evolving consensus of traders about that 15-minute outcome and will move as new information and trades arrive; use them as a real-time sentiment signal rather than a definitive prediction.
Resolution is determined by comparing the designated reference price at the end of the 15-minute observation window to the reference price at its start; whether ties, price source, or midpoints are handled is specified in the market’s rule text on KALSHI, so check that rule for the precise definition.
The market’s start time and close-to-trade cutoff are set by the event listing on KALSHI; if the page currently shows 'Closes: TBD', you should monitor the event details for the announced start/close times because trading typically stops shortly before the observation window begins.
Settlement uses the data source specified in the market rules—often a single exchange ticker or an aggregated index—so consult the event’s rule text to see which feed and timestamp KALSHI will use for the settlement price.
Low traded volume implies limited liquidity, so quoted odds can be moved by very small trades and may not reflect broad market consensus; expect wider effective spreads, higher slippage, and greater sensitivity to single large orders.
Yes—events and large trades inside the observation window directly affect the settlement price, and market odds typically update in real time as participants react, with high-frequency traders often influencing price adjustments in very short windows.