| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which SOFR level will be recorded at the end of Q1 2026; outcomes reflect traders' collective expectations for short-term secured funding conditions at that quarter end. It matters because SOFR is a benchmark for many short-term contracts and reflects near-term money‑market liquidity and policy expectations.
SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) is published daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and represents overnight repo rates secured by Treasury collateral. Since its adoption as a risk‑free benchmark, SOFR has been sensitive to Fed policy, reserve balances, Treasury issuance, and quarter‑end liquidity strains. Market participants watch economic data, FOMC signals, and money‑market flows to form expectations for an end‑of‑quarter SOFR observation.
Prediction market prices summarize traders' aggregated expectations and respond in real time to new information; they are best used as a dynamic indicator of market sentiment rather than a fixed forecast. Always consult the event's official settlement rules to understand which published SOFR observation will determine the outcome.
Kalshi events of this type typically reference the daily SOFR published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for the specified observation date; check the event's settlement rules on the market page to confirm the exact source and timestamp used.
‘End of Q1 2026’ normally refers to the last business day of March 2026 for published financial series; verify the event description or settlement terms on the Kalshi event page to confirm whether the last business day or another specified observation is used.
FOMC meetings and communications, major inflation releases (CPI/PCE), employment reports, and any unexpected Fed operations or changes to Treasury issuance schedules are the primary drivers that could materially shift SOFR expectations before quarter end.
Quarter‑end technicals can temporarily tighten or loosen secured funding markets as institutions adjust balances and dealers manage inventory; this can cause short‑lived moves in overnight repo rates and therefore in the published SOFR for the observation date.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a historical daily SOFR series; additional sources include the Federal Reserve data releases, FRED, and market data terminals—use those series to examine past quarter‑end behavior and seasonality.