| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will be recorded in Washington, D.C. during March 2026; it matters because late-winter snow affects travel, city operations, and energy demand and aggregates real‑time expectations about those outcomes.
Washington, D.C. sits in a zone where March can be transitional: some years see late-season snow from coastal nor'easters or inland storms, while other years trend milder. Longer-term climate trends have shifted seasonal patterns, but individual March outcomes are driven by short- to medium-range atmospheric setups.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants based on weather models, observations, and news; they are a dynamic signal of expectations, not an official forecast. Always compare market information with official meteorological forecasts and the contract's published settlement rules.
The contract is settled according to the official definition and observation method named in its resolution rules; typically that means snow recorded by the designated observing station(s) or National Weather Service reports during March 2026. Check the contract to see whether 'snow' includes trace reports, mixed precipitation, or requires measurable accumulation.
Settlement will use the specific station(s) or geographic boundary specified in the contract's resolution source clause—commonly an NWS/NOAA station serving Washington, D.C. Review the contract text to confirm the exact station and geographic definition.
The contract defines the start and end times used for settlement (for example the calendar month in a specified local time or UTC); consult the contract's resolution section to confirm the precise window applied to March 2026.
The contract lists the authoritative data sources (often NWS/NOAA observations, hourly station logs, or archived public datasets) and the dispute resolution process; any ambiguity is resolved according to those published rules, so review them before trading.
Use operational model guidance and short‑term forecasts for near-term likelihood and climatological frequency for baseline context; remember the market updates as new information arrives, so monitor official forecasts, model runs, and observations during the weeks and days leading into March 2026.