| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether there will be measurable snow in Seattle during March 2026. It matters because snowfall in March can disrupt transportation, commerce, and municipal operations and is of interest to weather-sensitive traders and local stakeholders.
Seattle has a maritime-influenced climate with mild, wet winters; March is a transitional month when temperatures and storm tracks shift toward spring, so both rain and occasional snow are possible. Historically, measurable March snow occurs intermittently—less frequently than in mid-winter but not unheard of—and long‑term warming and variability in large-scale Pacific patterns affect the baseline likelihood.
Prediction market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders given current information and will change as forecasts and observations evolve; they are not a certainty but a real‑time signal combining weather forecasts, seasonal indicators, and market sentiment.
Resolution depends on the contract's official terms; typically the market will specify a designated observation site(s) and require measurable snowfall recorded by an official meteorological observer or National Weather Service station during March 1–31, 2026. Check the event’s rule text on the platform for the authoritative definition.
The event page indicates the close time as TBD; settlement usually occurs after the observation period ends and once the designated official data source publishes final observations. The platform’s event page and resolution policy will state the exact closure and settlement timing.
Watch the state of ENSO, the Pacific jet stream configuration, the presence of cold-air intrusions from the interior or Arctic, and any blocking patterns over the North Pacific—these determine whether storms bring cold enough air for snow versus warmer, rain-producing systems.
Deterministic forecasts and high-resolution models are most reliable within about 1–7 days for specific snow events, while 8–14 day ensemble forecasts offer probabilistic guidance; seasonal outlooks (weeks to months) provide context on tendencies but cannot predict day-specific snow events.
Long-term warming has shifted the rain–snow threshold upward, reducing the frequency of low-elevation snowfall on average while increasing variability in storm behavior; markets and forecasts implicitly combine these climate trends with near-term weather signals when forming expectations.