| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will occur within San Francisco during March 2026. It matters because snow in San Francisco is uncommon and would signal an unusually cold and moist weather pattern for the region.
San Francisco has a Mediterranean coastal climate with mild, wet winters and very rare low-elevation snow. Occurrences of snow in the city are exceptional and typically require a combination of an unusually cold air mass and a sufficiently moist storm track; broader patterns such as ENSO and the jet stream position influence the probability of such events.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders based on current forecasts and historical context and will update as new observations and model guidance arrive. For precise settlement interpretation, consult the market’s official contract language and designated data sources.
The event title indicates March 2026; the contract page specifies the exact start and end timestamps and will determine the precise window used for settlement—check that page for the authoritative timeframe.
Settlement will rely on the authoritative data source named in the contract (commonly National Weather Service or designated station observations). The contract will state whether a trace, measurable accumulation, or specific observation at a defined station constitutes a 'yes'.
Measurable snow in San Francisco is extremely rare in the modern record; a few historical events exist but are exceptions. For exact dates and details, consult local climatological records or NWS historical data.
A combination of a deep Pacific storm bringing significant moisture, a southward-displaced jet stream allowing cold continental or polar air to reach coastal California, and intense precipitation rates that overcome near-surface marginal temperatures would increase the odds of snow at low elevations.
Settlement will occur after the observation period ends based on the specified authoritative source; the market page on Kalshi will display the settlement rules and the final outcome. Monitor that page and official meteorological reports for the determination.