| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether measurable snow will fall in Salt Lake City during March 2026. The outcome matters for residents, transportation planners, utilities, and anyone with weather-sensitive operations in the region.
Salt Lake City sits in a basin at the foot of the Wasatch Range, so local snowfall depends on a combination of valley temperatures and upslope/moisture delivery from Pacific storms. March is a transitional month with high interannual variability driven by seasonal patterns (for example, ENSO-related differences) and by year-to-year storm tracks. Long-term warming trends can shift the rain/snow threshold but do not determine any single month's weather.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations based on available information and forecasts; treat them as a real-time snapshot of collective judgment rather than a fixed probability. Combine market signals with meteorological forecasts and the contract’s measurement rules for decision-making.
The precise definition is in the contract's settlement rules; typically it means measurable snowfall recorded at the named official reporting station within the market's defined location and time window (March 2026). Check the market page for the exact wording on what accumulation, if any, is required.
The market’s contract specifies the official data source and station (for example an NWS/NOAA observing site). Consult the market page to see the exact station name and dataset used for settlement.
No — settlement is based on observations at the specified reporting location(s) in the contract. Mountain accumulations matter for local impacts but will not count unless the contract explicitly includes them.
Seasonal outlooks give a background expectation weeks to months ahead, but specific storm timing and precipitation phase are best resolved by medium-range models about 5–10 days ahead; confidence typically increases as the event approaches and multiple models converge.
The market's close time is listed on the exchange page (currently TBD). Settlement normally occurs after the end of the March observation window once official data are available and the exchange publishes the verified outcome — see the contract for exact settlement timing and procedures.