| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will occur within the City of Philadelphia at any time during March 2026. It matters for travelers, utilities, city services, and commercial stakeholders who monitor late‑season winter risk.
March is a transitional month in the Mid‑Atlantic: it can produce late winter nor'easters as well as early spring warmth, so snowfall frequency and amounts are highly variable year to year. Historical records and climate trends show fewer heavy snow seasons on average, but individual storms can still produce significant snow if cold air and moisture coincide. The market's six‑outcome structure reflects alternative snowfall thresholds or categories used for settlement.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations based on current forecasts and observations; prices typically shift as seasonal signals, model runs, and surface reports change. For final resolution, the market relies on the exchange's stated settlement source and rules rather than ongoing price levels.
Settlement follows the exchange's published rules and the designated authoritative observational dataset; in practice that means measurable snowfall as recorded by the official reporting station(s) the market cites (typically National Weather Service climate reports for Philadelphia). Consult the market's settlement source to see the precise reporting definition used.
The market uses the specific station or dataset named in its settlement rules—commonly the National Weather Service's official climate station for the Philadelphia area (e.g., the airport climate site) or an equivalent NWS daily summary. Check the market page for the exact station or dataset referenced for resolution.
Settlement defers to the precipitation-type classifications in the referenced authoritative observations (NWS reports or the listed dataset). If the official report records the event as snow or reports measurable snowfall, it will count per the market's settlement criteria; mixed precipitation will be treated according to how it is recorded in those official products.
Resolution will occur after March 31, 2026 once the official daily climate summaries and any required verification period from the named data source are available. The exchange publishes the exact resolution timing and any verification window on the market page or in its settlement rules.
Early in the season, traders lean on seasonal signals (e.g., ENSO, large‑scale teleconnections) to set baseline expectations; as March approaches, medium‑ and short‑range numerical model runs, ensemble forecasts, and observed trends (satellite/radar, temperature anomalies) typically drive larger and faster price moves. Official NWS forecasts and storm reports also strongly influence market sentiment.