| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will occur in New York City during March 2026; it matters because March is a transitional month where small shifts in temperature and storm track can flip outcomes. Trading aggregates competing views about weather forecasts, seasonal patterns, and observational definitions.
March in New York City is climatologically variable: some years produce late-season nor'easters with significant snow, while other years are dominated by milder conditions and rain. Long-term warming trends have reduced average snow frequency in many places, but variability and powerful coastal storms mean snow in March remains possible.
Market prices and odds summarize traders' real-time beliefs about which outcome is most likely given available information; they update as forecasts, observations, and seasonal signals change. Use them as a dynamic signal rather than a fixed prediction.
Resolution depends on the market's stated rules—most weather markets use an official National Weather Service (NWS) observation or specified station(s) within the city and a minimum measurable accumulation threshold; check the market description for the precise definition and station list.
The market close is listed as TBD; the outcome is typically determined after March 31, 2026, once the operator can verify official daily observations. Consult the market page for any announced closing time and the operator's resolution window.
Warming trends have generally reduced the frequency of light, season-early snow, especially at lower elevations and near the coast, but they also increase variability in precipitation type; strong coastal storms can still produce heavy March snow if cold air is in place.
Monitor surface and 850 hPa temperatures, storm track and cyclogenesis location, coastal pressure gradients, model ensemble spreads (GFS/ECMWF ensembles), real-time radar and satellite trends, and snow-to-liquid ratios expected for the event.
Resolution usually relies on official meteorological sources such as NWS/NOAA station reports, official airport observation sites (e.g., Central Park or other specified stations), or another named data provider listed in the market rules—confirm the exact source in the market's resolution criteria.