| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will occur in the Miami area during March 2026. It matters because an outcome that is very uncommon carries implications for weather forecasting, infrastructure preparedness, and climate signal interpretation.
Snow in South Florida is historically rare, so markets on this question combine meteorology and low-frequency event risk assessment. Large-scale climate patterns, seasonal anomalies, and short-term synoptic setups all interact to produce the conditions needed for snow in a subtropical coastal city. Market participants typically monitor both long-lead climate indicators and near-term weather models.
Market prices reflect collective judgment about the likelihood of the contract's resolution condition being met; interpret them as a summary of current information and sentiment rather than fixed truth. Because weather can change rapidly, prices can move substantially as new observations and forecasts arrive.
Resolution depends on the contract's stated definition; common definitions require measurable snow or snow accumulation at specified official observing sites (for example, an NWS station or airport) within the Miami city or metro area. Always check the contract text and the exchange's resolution authority notes for the precise measurement and location used to settle this market.
Typically 'Mar 2026' means the calendar period from 00:00 local time on March 1, 2026 through 23:59 local time on March 31, 2026, but the contract may specify time zones or exact cutoff times, so confirm the contract wording and settlement rules before trading.
Exchanges usually rely on authoritative sources such as the National Weather Service, an official airport observation site, or a named local meteorological station listed in the contract; the resolution statement will specify the official source, so consult that document to know which stations count.
You would typically need an unusually deep southward penetration of Arctic or continental cold air coinciding with a source of moisture over South Florida; temperatures near or below freezing at low levels, the vertical temperature profile supportive of snow (not sleet or freezing rain), and precipitation at the time of the cold intrusion are all necessary components.
Long-lead signals from seasonal climate indices provide a background expectation several weeks to months out, but the clearest, actionable information appears in deterministic weather model runs and observations within about 1–10 days before a potential event as they capture the exact timing and intensity of cold-air intrusions and moisture overlap.