| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will occur within Los Angeles during March 2026. It matters because measurable snow inside the city or its official boundaries is very uncommon and would be a notable weather and infrastructure event.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean coastal climate with strong maritime moderation at low elevations and much colder conditions in nearby mountains. Snow is routine at higher elevations in the San Gabriel Mountains but rare at sea level or in the urban core; when it does occur it requires an unusual combination of a cold air mass and a moisture-bearing storm. Large-scale patterns such as ENSO state and the storm track over the Pacific influence the seasonal likelihood of significant cold and precipitation events.
Market prices aggregate the beliefs of traders and update as new observations and forecasts arrive; they should be read as a realtime consensus signal, not an official forecast. Use them alongside official meteorological products and the event's resolution text to judge the market.
Check the market's official resolution text for the precise boundary; many events specify the City of Los Angeles municipal limits or an official observing station within those limits. If the market text is ambiguous, resolution typically relies on statements from the designated official source listed by the market.
Resolution depends on the event wording. Some markets require measurable accumulation recorded at an official station, while others accept any verified occurrence of snowfall. Always refer to the event's resolution criteria and the list of acceptable reporting agencies.
Official determinations usually cite the National Weather Service/local forecast office, NOAA/NCEI station reports, or an official city or county meteorological observer identified in the market rules. Local weather stations and airport observation networks are common sources.
Whether that qualifies is defined by the market's resolution language. If the event specifies 'within Los Angeles city limits' and an official observing station at that summit reports snowfall, it often qualifies; if the event implicitly targets the urban lowland, it may not. Refer to the market definition and official sources.
Deterministic forecasts that indicate the exact timing of a cold storm become useful within the short range (several days) before the event, while probabilistic model guidance and large-scale pattern signals can offer hints a week to two weeks ahead. Seasonal signals (e.g., ENSO) provide context on background risk but do not predict single storms.