| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will fall in Jackson, Wyoming during March 2026. Outcomes matter to local residents, ski operators, water managers and traders because March snowfall influences spring runoff, tourism revenue, and avalanche hazard.
Jackson sits in a mountain valley where March weather is driven by a mix of cold continental air and Pacific storm systems; some years bring substantial late-season snow while others are relatively dry. Interannual variability is large due to shifting storm tracks and large-scale climate patterns, while long-term warming trends can change how often precipitation falls as snow versus rain at marginal temperatures.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders given current forecasts and background conditions and will change as new meteorological data and model runs arrive. Use prices as a snapshot of market consensus, not as a fixed forecast—follow official weather forecasts for deterministic planning.
The six discrete outcomes correspond to predefined snowfall amount ranges or categories for March 2026 at the market's specified measurement location; consult the contract page for the precise bin edges and the official definition used to assign an outcome.
The market will use an identified official reporting station or data source named in the contract (for example an NWS or airport station) and will follow the measurement and reporting conventions specified there; check the event's resolution rules to see the exact station and methodology.
The market close time is listed as TBD; final settlement typically occurs after the end of the measurement period (the calendar month of March 2026) once the nominated official data are published and any contractual reporting lag or verification period has passed.
Watch operational model suite outputs and ensemble forecasts for storm tracks and precipitation type, the evolving ENSO state and Pacific jet behavior, short-range model guidance in the 1–10 day window for storm timing, and local temperature trends and snowpack observations.
Settlement generally relies on official sources cited in the contract such as National Weather Service observations, airport/ASOS station reports, or archived datasets from federal agencies—refer to the event's resolution clause for the definitive list of acceptable data providers.