| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will occur in Houston during March 2026; it matters because measurable snow is uncommon in Houston and would reflect a notable short-term weather departure with local impacts.
Houston has a humid subtropical climate where winter precipitation is usually rain and freezing conditions are uncommon, so snow events are rare but not impossible. Seasonal climate drivers (e.g., jet stream configuration, tropical Atlantic and Gulf temperatures, and large-scale teleconnections) and shorter-term synoptic patterns determine whether cold air and sufficient lift coincide to produce snow. Check the market's rules page for the official resolution criteria and any closing date (this market currently lists its close as TBD).
Market prices aggregate traders' assessments of the likelihood of snow given available information and update as forecasts and observations change; use them as a real-time summary of crowd expectations, not as fixed forecasts.
Resolution typically depends on official meteorological observations; many markets require measurable snowfall (often defined in the event rules) recorded at specified official stations. Consult the market's rule page to see the exact definition that will be used for this event.
The market's rulebook should list the official observing locations used for resolution (commonly National Weather Service or designated airport/COOP stations representing Houston). Confirm those listed locations on the event page before trading.
Many events use local time from 00:00 on March 1 through 23:59 on March 31, but the market's rules may specify UTC or another convention; check the event details to be sure which timestamps will be used for verification.
Most prediction markets rely on official observational networks (NWS reports, METARs, or designated COOP stations) rather than unverified social-media reports; the event rules will state which sources are admissible for resolution.
Traders commonly monitor medium- to long-range model ensembles, short-term high-resolution models for storm tracks, NWS forecasts and advisories, sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf, and teleconnections like ENSO or the Arctic Oscillation that influence cold-air intrusions into Texas.