| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 20.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will occur in Detroit during March 2026; it matters to traders, weather-sensitive operations, and residents because late-winter snow can affect travel, infrastructure, and energy demand.
Detroit sits in a transitional climate zone where March can bring either springlike warmth or late-season snowfall driven by synoptic storms and Great Lakes influence. Lake-effect enhancement, variable storm tracks, and larger-scale patterns (ENSO, NAO/AO) have historically produced substantial year-to-year variability in March snowfall for the Detroit area.
Prices in this prediction market represent the collective, up-to-date assessment of which outcome is most likely given current information and forecasts; they will move as meteorological data and forecasts change. For exact settlement rules and the authoritative data source, consult the KALSHI contract text for this event.
The event’s contract on KALSHI specifies the official reporting station or dataset and the measurement protocol (for example, a designated NWS station or airport observation). Traders should read the contract text to confirm the exact station, reporting network, and any accumulation threshold used for settlement.
The six outcomes are discrete, mutually exclusive result bins defined in the contract (typically ranges of accumulated snowfall or categorical yes/no thresholds). The event page lists the exact bin boundaries and payout rules; that mapping determines which single outcome will win when the official observations are applied.
The page currently shows 'Closes: TBD'; KALSHI will set a firm close time before or during March 2026. Final determination is made after the contract’s defined observation window ends and the designated reporting agency publishes the official totals, per the contract’s settlement rules.
Seasonal signals and teleconnection indices can indicate a bias months ahead, but useful, actionable snowfall forecasts typically emerge in the 7–14 day window via deterministic model runs and are supplemented by ensemble guidance out to a few weeks. Lake-effect details and exact accumulations are best assessed with days-to-one-week lead time.
Monitor Great Lakes water temperatures and ice cover, trends in ENSO/NAO/AO, the evolution of the eastern US jet stream and storm tracks, consecutive model ensemble runs for potential coastal or inland lows, and NWS official forecasts and observations for Detroit; changes in any of these can materially alter snowfall prospects.