| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 0.5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 10.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks whether measurable snow will occur within the Dallas observation area during March 2026. The outcome matters because any snow in Dallas can affect transportation, energy use, and local preparedness in a region that rarely sees winter storms.
Dallas sits in a transition zone where mild, subtropical influences dominate but strong mid-latitude storms or Arctic intrusions can produce occasional winter precipitation. March is a shoulder month: the atmosphere is seasonally warming but remains capable of producing late-season cold outbreaks and wintry precipitation under the right synoptic setup. Historical records show occasional March snow events in the Dallas region, so this is a question of whether meteorological conditions align in that specific month.
Market prices on this contract summarize traders' collective expectations about the meteorological and seasonal drivers that would produce measurable snow in Dallas in March 2026. Use market movement alongside official forecasts and model guidance to understand changing odds as the month approaches.
Resolution will follow the contract's official definition on the Kalshi event page; typically that definition refers to measurable snow recorded at a specified official observation site (for example an NWS-authorized station) within the Dallas area during March 1–31, 2026. Check the market's contract text for the exact observation station and measurement threshold used for settlement.
The five outcomes partition the universe of possible observations the contract covers (for example ranges or categories specified by Kalshi). Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive resolution condition listed in the contract; consult the event page to see the exact labels and resolving criteria for each of the five outcomes.
Markets like this ordinarily rely on authoritative meteorological records such as National Weather Service observations, Cooperative Observer Program reports, or instrumented airport stations designated in the contract. The Kalshi contract will name the authoritative source used for final resolution.
Resolution follows the contract's specified observation site and data source. Snow reported elsewhere in the metro area does not affect settlement unless it is recorded at the designated measurement location or data set named in the contract terms.
Settlement depends on the rules and time window defined by the contract. Some markets allow for finalized, quality-controlled data and specify a deadline for revisions; others resolve on the first official daily observation. Review the Kalshi event rules to see how post-observation adjustments are handled for this market.