| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 8.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 12.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 18.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 25.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 30.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will occur in Chicago during March 2026; outcomes matter for residents, transit operators, utilities, and weather-focused traders who respond to near-term forecast risk.
Chicago’s March weather is highly variable—some years see late-season snowstorms while others move quickly into spring. Large-scale drivers such as ENSO state, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the preferred storm tracks for the season shape risk, and this specific Kalshi contract currently shows seven outcome buckets and $18,285 in traded volume (check the event page for live data).
Market prices represent the collective view of traders at a point in time and update as forecasts and observations evolve; interpret prices as an indication of market sentiment rather than a fixed scientific probability.
The market’s resolution text defines the measurement period—typically the local calendar month (March 1–31, 2026) unless the contract states otherwise; confirm the precise start and end times on the event page.
The contract specifies the official observing station(s) and data source used for settlement (for example an NWS station); review the resolution clause on Kalshi to see the named station and dataset that will be used.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive category defined in the contract (commonly bins of total March snowfall or discrete yes/no thresholds); the event page lists the exact bin boundaries and settlement criteria.
If the event lists 'Closes: TBD', Kalshi will announce the trading close and settlement schedule; settlement normally occurs after the measurement window ends and the official observations are published by the named source.
Use historical March climatology as a baseline for typical variability, then layer in current-season indicators (ENSO/NAO) and short-range model ensembles—near-term deterministic and ensemble forecasts will often drive price movement as potential storms approach.