| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.0 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable snow will fall in Austin, Texas during March 2026 and why that outcome matters for transportation, utilities, and local planning. Snow in Austin is relatively uncommon, so the event attracts attention when winter patterns threaten Central Texas.
Austin's climate is subtropical with winters that are usually mild; measurable snowfall occurs only when a strong cold air mass reaches central Texas and couples with sufficient Gulf moisture. Long-term warming has changed seasonal averages but not the atmosphere's capacity for occasional extreme cold outbreaks, so rare snow remains meteorologically plausible.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations based on forecasts, observations, and news; they update as new meteorological information arrives. Use them as a real-time indicator of market sentiment, not as a fixed forecast.
The market will settle according to the event's posted settlement criteria on the exchange page; that typically specifies a minimum measurable accumulation at a designated official observation site and a defined time window in March 2026. Always check the market's rules for the precise threshold and measurement rules.
The exchange's market description or rulebook will name the official observation source (commonly a National Weather Service/ASOS station or another defined dataset); if the settlement source is not listed there, contact the exchange for clarification before trading.
This market's close is listed as TBD; settlement typically occurs after the end of the calendar month once official observations are available and any dispute windows close. Check the market page for updates on the close and settlement timing.
Measurable snow usually requires a strong cold air intrusion that brings surface temperatures near or below freezing, combined with synoptic-scale lift and sufficient Gulf moisture—examples include deep upper-level troughs or surface cyclones tracking in a way that brings precipitation into the cold air mass.
Use market movements alongside official meteorological forecasts (NWS, global and ensemble model guidance) and observed trends; expect rapid updates as model runs, observations, and news about storm timing and intensity arrive. Also account for market liquidity and the possibility of volatile price swings in low-volume markets.